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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jun 07 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 159 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Jun 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was a C9/2n flare observed at 07/1543Z from Region 1499 (N15W09). This region produced five other low level C-class flares during the period. Region 1494 (S18W19) grew slightly and was also responsible for five low level C-class flares during the period. These regions were classied as Cai and Dso type groups, respectively, both with beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 1497 (S21W44) decreased in areal extent since yesterday, but remained the largest region on the disk and was classified as a Dai type group with beta magnetic characteristics.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began at unsettled to active levels, decreasing to quiet levels for the remainder of the period. The solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft decreased from 700 to 600 km/s over the past 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/- 4nT while the total field remained around 4 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin the forecast period at unsettled levels with a chance for active conditons on day one (08 June) as coronal effects wane and a weak CME from 05 June arrives. Quiet conditions are expected on day two (09 June) followed by a return to unsettled conditions with a chance for active periods on day three (10 June) with the potential arrival of a CME from 06 June.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Jun a 10 Jun
Clase M30%25%25%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       07 Jun 128
  Previsto   08 Jun-10 Jun  130/130/130
  Media de 90 Días        07 Jun 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 06 Jun  017/017
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 07 Jun  007/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 08 Jun-10 Jun  007/008-006/005-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Jun a 10 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%10%20%
Tormenta Menor10%05%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor25%15%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa30%15%30%

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