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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jun 06 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 158 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Jun 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1494 (S18W06) produced an M2/1b at 06/2006Z associated with Type II (est. speed 1148 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. An associated CME was first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 06/2036Z. Further analysis will be conducted as more images become available to determine geoeffectiveness. A filament eruption was observed in SDO AIA 193 imagery around 05/1945Z near N12W10. The CME was first visible in STEREO COR 2 imagery at 05/2039Z. The majority of the ejecta appears to be north of the ecliptic plane, however, there is a weak Earth-directed component. A model run is in progress to determine geoeffectiveness. The Penticton 10 cm Flux value was estimated due to flare enhancement.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event for the next three days (07-09 June).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active for the past 24 hours due to effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods on day one (07 June) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (08-09 June) as effects from the CH HSS begin to subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Jun a 09 Jun
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       06 Jun 140
  Previsto   07 Jun-09 Jun  140/140/140
  Media de 90 Días        06 Jun 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 05 Jun  015/021
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 06 Jun  013/016
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun  011/015-007/012-006/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Jun a 09 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor25%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa40%30%15%

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