Viendo archivo del lunes, 4 junio 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jun 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 156 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 Jun 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1496 (N17E17) produced a C1/Sf at 04/0936Z. New Regions 1500
(N09W34), 1501 (N07E15) and 1502 (S17E41) were numbered today. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class events for the next three days
(05-07 June).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours due to effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds remained steady around 600
km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt was stable at
approximately 8 nT. The Bz component of the IMF reached a maximum
deviation of -12 nT between 04/0800 - 1000Z, but varied between -5
to +2 nT for the majority of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active, with a chance for isolated minor
storm periods on day one (05 June), due to continued effects from
the CH HSS. Days two and three (06-07 June) are expected to be
unsettled, with a chance for isolated active periods, as the effects
from the CH HSS begin to subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 Jun a 07 Jun
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 Jun 128 Previsto 05 Jun-07 Jun 130/135/135 Media de 90 Días 04 Jun 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 Jun 016/026 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 Jun 015/019 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun 014/022-014/018-011/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 Jun a 07 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 55% | 40% |
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