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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 May 22 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 143 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 May 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1484 (N10W43) had slight growth in its intermediate spots. Region 1482 (N14W71) had slight decay in its trailing spots. New Region 1488 (N12E55) was numbered today. At approximately 22/0205Z, a filament eruption was observed in the SW quadrant near center disk. STEREO B COR 2 imagery showed a faint CME that appeared to be slightly south of the ecliptic beginning at 22/0609Z. Further analysis is on-going to determine the geoeffectiveness of this CME.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the forecast period (23 - 25 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Early on 22 May, solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft increased from approximately 360 km/s to 420 km/s. Temperature and total magnetic field also displayed a slight increase as a coronal hole high speed stream moved into geoeffective position. The geomagnetic field responded with active periods during the intervals 22/0300 - 0600Z and 22/1800 - 2100Z. Minor storm intervals were observed at high latitudes from 22/1200 - 1800Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a continued chance for active periods on day 1 (23 May) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2 (24 May) as the CH HSS effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day 3 (25 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 May a 25 May
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 May 121
  Previsto   23 May-25 May  120/120/115
  Media de 90 Días        22 May 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 21 May  007/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 22 May  015/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  013/014-007/008-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 May a 25 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor15%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor20%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%01%01%

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