Viendo archivo del lunes, 21 mayo 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 May 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 142 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 May 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare for
the forecast period (22 - 24 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A weak
interplanetary shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 21/1844Z.
An associated sudden impulse of 34 nT was observed at the Boulder
magnetometer at 21/1937Z. The geomagnetic field responded with an
active period between 21/1800 - 2100Z. This activity was likely
attributable to the arrival of the 18 May CME.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods on days 1-2 (22 - 23 May) as recurrent coronal hole high
speed streams (CH HSS) move into a geoeffective position. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on day 3 (24 May) as effects of
the CH HSS wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 May a 24 May
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 May 125 Previsto 22 May-24 May 125/125/120 Media de 90 Días 21 May 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 May 012/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 May 005/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 010/010-007/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 May a 24 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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