Viendo archivo del sábado, 19 mayo 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 May 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 140 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 May 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few weak C-class flares
were observed from old Region 1476 (N10, L=180) and Region 1479
(N15W39). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting
period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days 1 -
3 (20 - 22 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event at geosynchronous orbit that began at 17/0210Z and reached a
peak flux of 255 pfu at 17/0430Z, ended at 18/1620Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day 1 (20 May). Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day 2 (21 May). Quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods are expected on day 3 (22 May)
as a coronal hole high speed stream and the 18 May CME are expected
to become geoeffective.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 May a 22 May
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 May 131 Previsto 20 May-22 May 135/130/130 Media de 90 Días 19 May 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 May 008/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 May 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 006/005-007/008-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 May a 22 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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