Viendo archivo del viernes, 11 mayo 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 May 11 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 132 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 May 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours with several C-class x-ray flares. Region 1476 (N10W06) was the source for nearly all of the reported flares, with the largest being a C6 that occurred at 11/1738Z. This region has remained mostly consistent as an Fkc/beta-gamma-delta spot group, but has shown some signs of decay, mainly in the trailer spots. New Regions 1479 (N15E65) and 1480 (S16W10) were numbered over the last 24 hours, are Hsx/Axx classifications respectively, and have yet to show much activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class x-ray flares for the next three days (12 - 14 May) as Region 1476 keeps its Fkc/beta-gamma-delta configuration.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind measurements, as observed by the ACE spacecraft, showed a fairly steady drop in speeds from approximately 650 km/s down to approximately 550 km/s. The effects of the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) should begin to wane over the next 24-48hrs. The total IMF remains fairly stable at approximately 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (12-13 May), then return to quiet levels on day three (14 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 May a 14 May
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X20%20%20%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       11 May 136
  Previsto   12 May-14 May  130/130/130
  Media de 90 Días        11 May 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 10 May  011/013
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 11 May  011/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May  007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 May a 14 May
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%10%05%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%15%15%
Tormenta Menor25%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%10%05%

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