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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Apr 26 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 117 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Apr 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1460 (N15W93) and Region 1465 (S18W39) both produced C1 x-ray events at 25/2242Z and 26/1723Z respectively. Both had associated CMEs but neither are expected to be geoeffective. Three consecutive CMEs appeared on LASCO/C2 imagery at 26/0924Z, 26/1148Z, and 26/1638Z. All three were around the west limb and are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain low with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days (27 - 29 April).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field started the period at minor storm levels, but fell to quiet levels and remained mostly quiet for the remainder of the period. This activity was attributed to Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS) effects. Solar wind speeds have steadily decreased from approximately 730 km/s to approximately 560 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained fairly neutral with minor fluctuations between +3 and -5 nT. Overall, the total field fluctuated between +2 and +8 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods for day one (27 April) as CH HSS effects begin to wane. Days two and three (28 -29 April) are expected to be mostly quiet.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Apr a 29 Apr
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       26 Apr 119
  Previsto   27 Apr-29 Apr  115/110/105
  Media de 90 Días        26 Apr 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 25 Apr  018/031
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 26 Apr  013/017
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 27 Apr-29 Apr  007/010-004/005-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Apr a 29 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%10%10%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor25%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa25%10%10%

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