Viendo archivo del domingo, 15 abril 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Apr 15 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 106 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Apr 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels. Two low-level C-class flares occurred from a source beyond the northeast limb. Region 1459 (S16E64) produced occasional B-class flares while it rotated more fully into view as a Dai-type group with a beta magnetic classification. Region 1455 (N05W46) showed intermediate spot development during the period and was classified as a Dsi-type with a beta magnetic classification. Small Axx-type Region 1454 (S12W00) produced a B9 x-ray flare at 15/0908Z associated with a slow partial-halo CME, which is not expected to be geoeffective. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (16 - 18 April).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity decreased to mostly quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during the period (16 - 18 April).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Apr a 18 Apr
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       15 Apr 102
  Previsto   16 Apr-18 Apr  100/100/100
  Media de 90 Días        15 Apr 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 14 Apr  007/011
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 15 Apr  006/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr  004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Apr a 18 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%10%10%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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