Viendo archivo del domingo, 19 febrero 2012

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 050 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Feb 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. New Region 1422 (N15E02) produced a C1/Sf flare at 19/0851Z. This region developed rapidly on the disk as a 10 spot D-type group. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable with no Earth-directed CMEs detected.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days (20 - 22 February), particularly from developing Region 1422.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels through about 19/0200Z. For the following 6 - 9 hours, active to minor storm conditions were prevalent. This increase in activity was due to effects from a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream. The period ended with predominately quiet conditions with isolated high latitude active intervals. During the period, ACE solar wind velocities steadily increased from about 325 km/s, reaching a peak of about 500 km/s at 19/0700Z. Through the remainder of the period, wind speeds gradually decreased to 400 km/s. At 19/0220Z, the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum southward extent of -14 nT while Bt reached a maximum of 16 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next three days (20 - 22 February).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Feb a 22 Feb
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 Feb 105
  Previsto   20 Feb-22 Feb  110/115/115
  Media de 90 Días        19 Feb 131
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 18 Feb  003/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 19 Feb  013/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  004/005-003/005-003/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Feb a 22 Feb
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%10%10%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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