Viendo archivo del miércoles, 15 febrero 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Feb 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 046 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Feb 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with the chance for C-class flares over the next 3 days (16-18
February) from Regions 1416 (S19W55) and 1419 (N29E29).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged between quiet and minor storm levels at
mid latitudes during the period, while minor to major storm periods
were observed predominately at high latitudes. The majority of the
elevated activity was observed between 14/2200Z - 15/0600Z and was
most likely caused by the slow arriving CME that was observed on 10
February.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active early on day one (16 February) as
activity begins to wane. Conditions should be mostly quiet on day
two (17 February), before increasing again on day three (18
February), when high speed stream effects are expected from a
favorably positioned, negative polarity coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Feb a 18 Feb
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Feb 105 Previsto 16 Feb-18 Feb 105/110/110 Media de 90 Días 15 Feb 133
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Feb 008/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Feb 017/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 010/010-006/005-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Feb a 18 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 10% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 01% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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