Viendo archivo del lunes, 30 enero 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jan 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 030 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Jan 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1410 (N24E16) produced a
single C-class x-ray event during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low over the next 3 days (31 January - 02 February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet, until the arrival of a glancing blow
from the limb event CME that occurred in association with the X1/1f
flare on 27 January. The transient passage was observed by the ACE
spacecraft at 30/1554Z with a solar wind speed increase from around
350 km/s to near 450 km/s. A weak sudden impulse measuring 8nT was
observed by the Boulder magnetometer at 30/1635Z. Conditions
afterwards ranged from unsettled to quiet. The greater than 10 MeV
proton that began at 27/1905Z and reached a maximum of 796 pfu at
28/0205Z was still in progress at the time of this event, with flux
levels hovering near 20 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for days 1-3 (31 January - 02 February).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux levels, as observed by NOAA
GOES-13 in geosynchronous orbit, are expected to decay below the 10
pfu threshold in the next day or two.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Jan a 02 Feb
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 99% | 50% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Jan 114 Previsto 31 Jan-02 Feb 115/115/115 Media de 90 Días 30 Jan 143
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Jan 005/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Jan 000/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 004/005-004/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Jan a 02 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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