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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jan 28 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 028 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Jan 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 1410 (N18E48) produced a C1 flare at 28/1534Z. New Region 1411 (S26E09) was numbered today and is classified as an Axx-alpha type group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next three days (29-31 January).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 27/1900Z and reached a max of 12 pfu at 27/2140Z, was still in progress at the time of this writing. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 27/1905Z and reached a peak of 796 pfu at 28/0205Z, was also still in progress at the time of this writing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (29 January) as effects from the CH HSS subside. Unsettled to active conditions with a chance for isolated minor storm periods are expected on day two (30 January) due to effects from the CME associated with the X1 flare observed on 27 January. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (31 January) due to residual CME effects. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end by 29/0000Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue through day one (29 January) and then gradually decrease below threshold by the end of day two (30 January).
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Jan a 31 Jan
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón99%70%20%
PCAFIn Progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       28 Jan 115
  Previsto   29 Jan-31 Jan  115/110/110
  Media de 90 Días        28 Jan 143
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 27 Jan  006/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 28 Jan  004/004
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  005/005-014/018-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Jan a 31 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%40%15%
Tormenta Menor01%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%30%20%
Tormenta Menor05%30%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%01%

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