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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jan 27 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 027 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Jan 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 1402 (N29W88) produced an X1/1f flare at 27/1837Z with associated Type II (est. speed 1523 km/s) and Type IV Radio Sweeps, along with an 810 pfu Tenflare. An associated CME was first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 27/1827Z. The majority of the ejecta is directed towards the STEREO A spacecraft, however, further analysis is necessary to determine potential geoeffectiveness.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low on day one (28 January) with a chance for isolated M-class activity as Region 1402 rotates around the west limb. Activity is expected to be very low to low on days two and three (29-30 January).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods observed at mid-latitudes and an isolated minor storm period observed at high latitudes. The increase in activity is due to the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 10 MeV and greater than 100 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit were above event threshold during the period due to the X1 flare mentioned above. The greater than 10 MeV proton event, which began at 27/1905Z and reached 96 pfu at the time of this writing, is still in progress. The greater than 100 MeV proton event, which began at 27/1900Z and reached 11 pfu at the time of this writing, is also still in progress. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux value was enhanced due to the X1 flare mentioned above. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (28 January) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for days two and three (29-30 January). The greater than 10 MeV and 100 MeV proton events are expected to continue on day one. A more reliable end time will be possible once the peak levels are observed.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Jan a 30 Jan
Clase M25%01%01%
Clase X05%01%01%
Protón99%50%01%
PCAFRed
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 Jan 142
  Previsto   28 Jan-30 Jan  120/120/120
  Media de 90 Días        27 Jan 144
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 26 Jan  005/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 27 Jan  007/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Jan a 30 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%10%10%
Tormenta Menor10%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%15%15%
Tormenta Menor15%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

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