Viendo archivo del jueves, 26 enero 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jan 26 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 026 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Jan 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1402 (N29W72) produced
several C-class events, the largest a C7 flare at 26/0149Z. The
region also produced a long duration C6 flare at 26/0542Z. An
associated partial-halo CME was first visible in C2 LASCO imagery at
26/0436Z (plane-of-sky speed approx 1044 km/s). The CME appears to
be directed well north of the ecliptic plane and towards the STEREO
A spacecraft. It is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class event on day one (27
January). Activity is expected to decrease to low levels on days two
and three (28-29 January) after Region 1402 rotates around the west
limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater
than 10 MeV Proton event that began at 23/0530Z and reached a
maximum value of 6310 pfu at 24/1530Z, is still in progress.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (27-28
January) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (29 January) as
effects from the CH HSS subside. The greater than 10 MeV Proton
event is expected to decrease below the 10 pfu threshold early on
day one (27 January).
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Jan a 29 Jan
| Clase M | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 50% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 Jan 128 Previsto 27 Jan-29 Jan 120/120/120 Media de 90 Días 26 Jan 143
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 25 Jan 017/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 26 Jan 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Jan a 29 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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