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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jan 25 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 025 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Jan 2012

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. As Regions 1401 (N16W66) and 1402 (N26W60) approached the west limb, they exhibited little change over the past 24 hours, as did the remainder of the disk and limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low during the period (26 - 28 January). A chance for M-class activity exists on 26 - 27 January from Regions 1401 and 1402 before they rotate around the west limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with isolated high latitude major to severe storm intervals. During the period, ACE solar wind velocities varied between a high of 625 km/s at the beginning, and steadily decreased to a low of near 500 km/s by the end. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field varied between +/- 10 nT through about 25/1000Z and remained weakly south at -1 to -5 nT through the end of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux event was still in progress at the time of this report. Proton flux levels steadily decayed to end the period near 100 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (26 January). By day two (27 January) and through day three (28 January), field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods. This increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream expected to move into a geoeffective position. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux event is expected to remain above event levels through 26 January, falling to background levels by 27 January.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Jan a 28 Jan
Clase M25%10%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón50%01%01%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       25 Jan 126
  Previsto   26 Jan-28 Jan  125/120/120
  Media de 90 Días        25 Jan 143
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 24 Jan  013/024
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 25 Jan  011/013
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan  005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Jan a 28 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%20%20%
Tormenta Menor01%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%25%25%
Tormenta Menor05%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%

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