Viendo archivo del domingo, 15 enero 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jan 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 015 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jan 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1401 (N17E60) has been the most productive region,
producing multiple C-class events. The largest event of the period
was C2 x-ray flare from around the west limb near old Region 1391
(N12, L=013). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk, with Region 1403 (S19E29) being numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class flares for the next
three days (16 - 18 January).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (16 January) and increase
to quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 -18 January)
as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jan a 18 Jan
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jan 134 Previsto 16 Jan-18 Jan 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 15 Jan 144
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jan 003/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jan 002/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 005/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jan a 18 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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