Viendo archivo del sábado, 14 enero 2012
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2012 Jan 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 014 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jan 2012IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. An M1 x-ray flare was observed at 14/1318Z from new
sunspot Region 1401 (N15E73). Three other new regions were numbered
in the past 24 hours, Region 1399 (S24E69), Region 1400 (S14W04),
and Region 1402 (N26E75). Even though Region 1401 and 1402 have just
rotated onto the visible disk, imagery and data from the STEREO B
spacecraft has shown these regions are active.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for more M-class events for the next three
days (15 - 17 January), as Regions 1401 and 1402 continue to rotate
onto the disk.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next two days (15
- 16 January). An increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected
on day three (17 January) as a coronal hole high speed stream
becomes geoeffective.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jan a 17 Jan
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Jan 132 Previsto 15 Jan-17 Jan 135/135/135 Media de 90 Días 14 Jan 144
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jan 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Jan 003/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 004/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jan a 17 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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