Viendo archivo del sábado, 31 diciembre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Dec 31 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 365 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 Dec 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. There were two M-class x-ray flares from Region 1389 (S23E31), the largest of which was a M2/Sf at 31/1315Z accompanied by a 150 pfu tenflare. The second was a M1/1F at 31/1626Z. This region was classified as an Ekc type group with beta-gamma characteristics. Region 1386 was also active, producing a C1/Sf flare at 31/1731Z. The remaining regions were stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain at predominantly low levels, with a chance for occasional M-class activity from Region 1389.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was about 350 km/s and Bz was mostly neutral to slightly negative.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels for the next three days (1-3 January) as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. There is a slight chance for active conditions during this period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Jan a 03 Jan
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       31 Dec 133
  Previsto   01 Jan-03 Jan  135/135/135
  Media de 90 Días        31 Dec 144
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 30 Dec  005/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 31 Dec  000/003
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan  008/010-007/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Jan a 03 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%10%10%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%15%

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