Viendo archivo del jueves, 29 diciembre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Dec 29 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 363 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Dec 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1389 (S23E58) produced the largest event of the period, an M1/1F flare at 29/1350Z. Region 1398 continues to grow and evolve as it rotates around the east limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels for the next three days (30 December - 01 January).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, have shown an increase from 280 km/s to almost 450 km/s in the past 24 hours. Signatures in the solar wind indicate the possible arrivals of the forecasted CMEs, however the intensity was lower than expected.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one (30 December) as the effects of the CMEs wane. Predominantly quiet levels are expected on day two (31 December). A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day three (01 January) as a coronal hole high speed stream moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Dec a 01 Jan
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       29 Dec 147
  Previsto   30 Dec-01 Jan  145/145/145
  Media de 90 Días        29 Dec 144
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 28 Dec  004/003
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 29 Dec  005/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan  012/008-005/005-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Dec a 01 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%05%10%
Tormenta Menor05%01%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor20%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%05%15%

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