Viendo archivo del domingo, 25 diciembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Dec 25 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 359 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Dec 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. New Region 1387 (S22W28)
produced a M4/1N flare at 25/1816Z. This event was accompanied by
Type II (1019 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions. This region grew
rapidly, ending the period as a Dao type group with Beta magnetic
characteristics. Coronagraph imagery was not yet available to
determine the characteristics of the CME. Earlier in the period, a
filament eruption occurred near N21W15. Analysis of this event
using LASCO imagery indicated a speed near 400 km/s. Evaluation of
the geoeffective potential of both the flare and filament eruption
is ongoing.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, with a chance for further M-class activity from Region
1387.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. An enhancement of the 10 MeV proton
flux at the ACE spacecraft was observed following the M4/1N flare
mentioned earlier.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mosly quiet on Days 1 and 2 (26-27 December).
Initial predictions are for the CME to arrive late on Day 3 (28
December), bringing unsettled to active levels with a slight chance
for minor storm conditions at high latitudes. The arrival estimate
will be refined as new data becomes available.
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Dec a 28 Dec
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 25 Dec 144 Previsto 26 Dec-28 Dec 150/155/155 Media de 90 Días 25 Dec 144
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 24 Dec 002/001 Estimado Afr/Ap 25 Dec 000/001 Previsto Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 006/005-006/005-007/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Dec a 28 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 25% | 40% |
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