Viendo archivo del sábado, 3 diciembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Dec 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 337 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Dec 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1363 (S22E16) has been the most active region on the
disk, with multiple C-class events. Region 1363 also continues to
grow in spot count, areal coverage, and magnetic complexity
(beta-gamma). New Region 1366 (N17E65) was numbered early in the
period as it rotated onto the visible disk. Multiple CMEs have been
observed in the past 24 hours, but none appear to have any Earth
directed components.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days
(04-06 December).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Slightly elevated activity was observed at high
latitudes, with an isolated period at minor storm levels, do to the
arrival of a transient CME. Signatures from the ACE spacecraft
indicated this transients arrival around 02/1800Z with a slight
increase in the lower energy protons, an increase in solar wind
speeds coupled with elevated solar wind density, and finally an
increase in total IMF intensity around 8 nT. The Penticton 10 cm
flux is estimated today at 160 sfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be a predominantly quiet levels for the next three days
(04-06 December).
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Dec a 06 Dec
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Dec 160 Previsto 04 Dec-06 Dec 165/165/160 Media de 90 Días 03 Dec 143
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Dec 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Dec 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 005/005-005/005-003/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Dec a 06 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Menor | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 00% | 00% | 00% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| Tormenta Menor | 08% | 07% | 07% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 02% | 01% | 01% |
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