Viendo archivo del jueves, 1 diciembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Dec 01 2305 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::::: SDF Número 335 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Dec 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event was a C3
flare from Region 1356 (N17W76) at 30/2232Z. Two coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) were observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 30/2112Z.
The events appear to originate from filament eruptions. The first
off the east limb beginning at 30/1922Z and the second near the west
limb beginning at 30/2046Z in SDO/AIA 171 imagery. We are currently
waiting on model runs to determine the possibility of a glancing
blow from these events.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day 1 (02 December)
with M-class flare probabilities increasing to a chance for days
2-3 (03-04 December).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with active to minor
storm periods observed at high latitudes.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue to be quiet to unsettled. There is still a
possibility for activity from a southern polar extent coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Dec a 04 Dec
| Clase M | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Dec 155 Previsto 02 Dec-04 Dec 145/140/140 Media de 90 Días 01 Dec 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Nov 009/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Dec 008/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 007/008-007/008-006/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Dec a 04 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 08% | 08% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 02% | 02% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 16% | 13% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 08% | 11% | 07% |
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