Viendo archivo del sábado, 26 noviembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 26 2220 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Número 330 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Nov 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. A long duration C1 flare was observed at 26/0710Z in
conjunction with an eruptive filament channel near Region 1353
(N08W49). A full halo CME, first observed in C2 imagery at 26/0712Z,
was also associated with this event. The other regions on the disk
remained mostly stable and quiet throughout the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels with a slight chance for M-class events, for the next
three days (27-29 November).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
At around 26/0840Z, signatures from the ACE spacecraft indicated
elevated levels of greater than 10 MeV protons. This increase was
associated with the eruptive filament channel, CME, and C1 flare
mentioned earlier. A greater than 10 MeV proton event at
geosynchronous orbit began at 26/1125Z. Max flux for this event,
thus far, was 54 pfu at 26/2055Z. This proton event was still in
progress when this report was issued.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels on day one (27
November). An increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance
for minor storm conditions is expected on days two and three (28-29
November). These elevated conditions are the result of the combined
effects of a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective
early on day two, and the arrival of todays full halo CME late on
day two or early on day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Nov a 29 Nov
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 90% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 Nov 133 Previsto 27 Nov-29 Nov 135/140/145 Media de 90 Días 26 Nov 140
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 25 Nov 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 26 Nov 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 006/008-011/012-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Nov a 29 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 39% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 03% | 17% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 00% | 01% | 02% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 11% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 27% | 26% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 08% | 58% | 61% |
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