Viendo archivo del domingo, 20 noviembre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 324 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Nov 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Frequent C-class flares occurred during the period, mostly from Region 1354 (S17E30). Region 1354 showed little change during the period, but exhibited a moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1357 (N17W18) was numbered and showed gradual spot growth. It produced a single low-level C-class flare during the period. A slow CME was observed off the northwest limb, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 images at around 20/1448Z. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 163 km/s and was likely associated with a filament eruption from the northwest quadrant. STEREO-A observations suggest the CME had an Earthward component, but further analysis will be required due to limited data.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (21 - 23 November) with a chance for an M-class flare from Region 1354.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet through the period (21 - 23 November). The above-mentioned CME is not expected to disturb the field during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Nov a 23 Nov
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       20 Nov 140
  Previsto   21 Nov-23 Nov  140/135/135
  Media de 90 Días        20 Nov 138
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 19 Nov  001/001
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 20 Nov  001/002
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Nov a 23 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%10%10%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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