Viendo archivo del viernes, 18 noviembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 322 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Nov 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1354 (S15E56) showed
gradual intermediate spot growth and produced a C2/Sf flare at
18/1723Z, as well as occasional optical subflares. Region 1346
(S17W17) showed minor spot growth during the period and produced a
C1/Sf flare at 18/1643Z. New Region 1355 (N14E73) rotated into view
and produced a single optical subflare. Multiple CMEs were evident
in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO images, but none were deemed to be
Earth-directed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (19 - 21 November) with a chance for an M-class
flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (19 November)
due to a possible glancing blow from a CME observed on 14 November.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels for the remainder
of the period (20 - 21 November).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Nov a 21 Nov
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Nov 144 Previsto 19 Nov-21 Nov 145/145/145 Media de 90 Días 18 Nov 137
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Nov 002/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Nov 002/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Nov a 21 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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