Viendo archivo del lunes, 14 noviembre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 318 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Nov 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Four new emerging flux regions were observed overnight, one of which emerged on the disk as Region 1348 (N20W70). Region 1348 was responsible for two C-flares overnight; the largest was a C5/Sf at 14/0930Z. Associated with this event was a Type II radio sweep with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 610 km/sec. Possible decay was noted in the trailing spots of Regions 1339 (N19W89) and 1344 (S17W86) as they are rotating off of the west limb. There was growth noted in the trailing spots of Region 1341 (N09W35). A slight amount of consolidation was observed in Region 1347 (N07E28). The additional three new flux regions were assigned numbers 1349 (N15W02), 1350 (N26E67), and 1351 (S23E51). A coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO C3 imagery at approximately 12/1906Z off of the east limb. The plane-of-sky velocity was calculated to be 638 km/sec. An additional CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery at 13/1930Z from the north limb. Neither CME is expected to become geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (15 - 17 November). There is a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Regions 1339, 1344 and new Region 1350.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels during the period (15 - 17 November).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Nov a 17 Nov
Clase M20%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 Nov 161
  Previsto   15 Nov-17 Nov  155/150/150
  Media de 90 Días        14 Nov 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 13 Nov  002/000
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 14 Nov  002/002
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Nov a 17 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo06%06%06%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa00%00%00%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo16%16%16%
Tormenta Menor17%17%17%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa08%08%08%

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