Viendo archivo del sábado, 12 noviembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 316 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Nov 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1339 (N18W62) and 1344
(S19W59) each produced occasional low-level C-class flares. Region
1339 continued to gradually decay and was classified as a Dac-type
with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1344 continued to
show gradual intermediate spot development. It was classified as a
Dai-type with a beta magnetic configuration. No significant changes
were noted in the remaining regions. New Region 1346 (S17E64), an
Hsx-type, was numbered early in the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (13 - 15 November). There will be a chance for an
isolated M-class flare until Regions 1339 and 1344 depart the west
limb on 14 November.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A weak interplanetary shock was
detected at the ACE spacecraft at 12/0518Z, followed by a sudden
geomagnetic impulse at Earth at 12/0611Z (8 nT, Boulder USGS
magnetometer). Modest increases in wind speed and IMF Bt were
observed following the shock arrival, which likely indicated the
arrival of the halo-CME observed on 09 November.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (13 -
14 November), followed by a decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (15
November).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Nov a 15 Nov
| Clase M | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Nov 169 Previsto 13 Nov-15 Nov 165/160/155 Media de 90 Días 12 Nov 134
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Nov 003/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Nov 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Nov a 15 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Menor | 02% | 02% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 14% | 14% | 13% |
| Tormenta Menor | 12% | 12% | 08% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 08% | 08% | 02% |
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