Viendo archivo del jueves, 10 noviembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 314 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Nov 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class flares were
observed. Region 1339 (N19W33) produced the largest flare of the
day, a C6/1f at 10/1831Z. Region 1339 showed gradual intermediate
and trailer spot decay during the period and was classified as an
Fkc/beta-gamma. Minor spot growth was noted in Regions 1341
(N08E14), 1344 (S19W31), and 1345 (S25W16). No new regions were
numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (11 - 13 November) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1339. There will also be a slight chance for a
major flare (M5 or above) from Region 1339 during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day 1 (11 November).
Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels
on day 2 (12 November) due to a CME arrival, associated with a halo
CME observed on 09 November. Activity is expected to decrease to
unsettled to active levels on day 3 (13 November) as CME effects
gradually subside.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Nov a 13 Nov
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Nov 179 Previsto 11 Nov-13 Nov 180/175/175 Media de 90 Días 10 Nov 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Nov 002/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Nov 003/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 010/010-020/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Nov a 13 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 01% |
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