Viendo archivo del miércoles, 9 noviembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 313 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Nov 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past
24 hours. A long duration M1 flare was observed at 09/1335Z.
Associated with this event were a Type II radio sweep with an
estimated shock velocity of 750 km/s and a eruptive filament channel
with a possible Earth directed CME. This filament channel was
located between Region 1342 (N17E22) and Region 1343 (N27E37) in the
Northeast quadrant of the visible disk. Imagery is still coming in
at the time of this report, but STEREO B and SDO/AIA imagery do
indicate a CME liftoff. Region 1339 (N21W19) has some simpliciation
in its magnetic structure but still remains classified as a
beta-gamma. New Region 1345 (S24W01) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (10-12 November).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (10 November). An increase
to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 2 (11 November) as
the effects of a CME, from 08 November, are forecast. An increase to
unsettled to active conditions on day 3 (12 November) is expected,
as the CME, associated with todays M1 flare, is expected to become
geoeffective.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Nov a 12 Nov
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Nov 180 Previsto 10 Nov-12 Nov 180/180/175 Media de 90 Días 09 Nov 131
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Nov 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Nov 002/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 005/005-010/010-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Nov a 12 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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