Viendo archivo de martes, 8 noviembre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 08 2355 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 312 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 Nov 2011 * * * * * * * * * * Corrected Copy * * * * * * * * * *

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1339 (N19W08) produced a few low-level C-class events during the period. The region continued to exhibit slow decay, both in area and spot count, as well as magnetic complexity losing its Delta configuration. The other large region on the disk, Region 1338 (S14W25) also is in slow decay, both in area and magnetic complexity, and is now classified as a Beta group. New region 1344 (S22W07) emerged on the disk early in the period as a simple uni-polar spot group. Early in the period, a filament eruption along a 25 degree channel was observed in SDO/AIA imagery beginning at about 07/2232Z. LASCO C2 imagery first observed a CME lifting off the NW limb at 07/2348Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate during the period (09 - 11 November) with a slight chance for high activity (M5 or greater) from Region 1339. There is also a slight chance for a proton flare from this region during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 07-2100Z a 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated high latitude minor storm periods. Solar wind speeds generally were below 400 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/- 7 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day one and two of the period (09 - 10 November). By day three (11 November), the field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated high latitude active periods, as glancing blow effects from the 07 November CME are felt.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 Nov a 11 Nov
Clase M70%70%70%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 Nov 181
  Previsto   09 Nov-11 Nov  180/180/175
  Media de 90 Días        08 Nov 130
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 07 Nov  004/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 08 Nov  006/006
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  004/005-004/005-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 Nov a 11 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%13%
Tormenta Menor02%02%03%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%16%
Tormenta Menor13%13%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa08%08%14%

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