Viendo archivo del sábado, 5 noviembre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 309 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Nov 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1339 (N19E31) produced three M-class events during the past 24 hours, the largest of which was an M3/1F at 0335Z. The other two M flares were an M1 at 1121Z and another M1 at 2038Z. Region 1339 continues to be the dominant group on the disk but showed a slight decrease in area and magnetic complexity. Nonetheless the group is still large (about 1190 millionths) and still has at least two magnetic delta configurations. New Region 1340 (S09E61) was assigned and is a simple H-type sunspot group. White light imagery from SDO show two significant spot groups rotating around east limb at about 9 degrees north and 17 degrees north. These are assigned NOAA Region numbers 1341 and 1342 respectively. The proximity of these regions to the limb makes it difficult to assess their size and complexity at this time.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate but with a slight chance for major flare activity (M5 or higher). In addition, as Region 1339 rotates closer to central meridian there will also be a slight chance for a proton producing event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. The proton enhancement that began on 04 October continued to show decreasing flux but was still slightly elevated above background levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Nov a 08 Nov
Clase M70%70%70%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       05 Nov 172
  Previsto   06 Nov-08 Nov  175/175/175
  Media de 90 Días        05 Nov 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 04 Nov  003/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 05 Nov  005/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Nov a 08 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo05%05%05%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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