Viendo archivo del jueves, 3 noviembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 307 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Nov 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 1339 (N18E57) produced
an X1/2B flare at 03/2027Z. In addition, the Region produced two
M-class events during the past 24 hours, an M4 at 02/2201Z and an M2
at 03/1111Z. This group has rotated more fully into view as a large,
E-type sunspot region with an apparent beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration. Current estimate of the area is around 1400
millionths. Region 1338 (S14E40) is also noteworthy as it has an
area of about 375 millionths in a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
However, it has only managed to produce a C-class event. The
remainder of the groups on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate but there is a chance for additional major flare
activity. The primary source of the elevated activity is expected to
be Region 1339. There may also be a contribution to the M-flare
activity from Region 1338.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Nonetheless a magnetic crochet was
clearly observed in the dayside magnetometer data in association
with the X1.9 flare.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods for the
first day (04 November). There is also a slight chance for storm
level activity on this day. The increase is expected as a result of
a glancing blow from the CME that occurred on 31 October. Activity
levels are expected to be quiet to unsettled for the second day (05
November) and quiet for the third day (06 November). Note that this
forecast may need to be updated if an earthward directed CME is
observed and associated with todays X-class event.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Nov a 06 Nov
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Nov 160 Previsto 04 Nov-06 Nov 165/165/165 Media de 90 Días 03 Nov 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Nov 007/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Nov 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 015/015-008/010-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Nov a 06 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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