Viewing archive of jueves, 3 noviembre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 307 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Nov 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 1339 (N18E57) produced an X1/2B flare at 03/2027Z. In addition, the Region produced two M-class events during the past 24 hours, an M4 at 02/2201Z and an M2 at 03/1111Z. This group has rotated more fully into view as a large, E-type sunspot region with an apparent beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Current estimate of the area is around 1400 millionths. Region 1338 (S14E40) is also noteworthy as it has an area of about 375 millionths in a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. However, it has only managed to produce a C-class event. The remainder of the groups on the disk were quiet and stable.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate but there is a chance for additional major flare activity. The primary source of the elevated activity is expected to be Region 1339. There may also be a contribution to the M-flare activity from Region 1338.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Nonetheless a magnetic crochet was clearly observed in the dayside magnetometer data in association with the X1.9 flare.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods for the first day (04 November). There is also a slight chance for storm level activity on this day. The increase is expected as a result of a glancing blow from the CME that occurred on 31 October. Activity levels are expected to be quiet to unsettled for the second day (05 November) and quiet for the third day (06 November). Note that this forecast may need to be updated if an earthward directed CME is observed and associated with todays X-class event.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Nov a 06 Nov
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X20%20%20%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       03 Nov 160
  Previsto   04 Nov-06 Nov  165/165/165
  Media de 90 Días        03 Nov 126
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 02 Nov  007/011
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  015/015-008/010-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Nov a 06 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%20%10%
Tormenta Menor15%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%25%10%
Tormenta Menor20%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%05%01%

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