Viendo archivo del martes, 1 noviembre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Nov 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 305 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Nov 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was low. Newly numbered Region 1338
(S12E69) produced the largest flare of the period; a C5 flare at
31/2322Z. Another new region, responsible for M-class flare
activity on 31 October, is currently rotating into view on the
Northeast limb and was numbered Region 1339 (N22E71). A CME was
observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 31/1700Z with the majority of
the ejecta off the Northeast limb. The CME was associated with a
disappearing solar filament (DSF) that was observed in SDO/AIA 193
imagery at 31/1426Z. STEREO B COR 2 imagery had a plane of sky
speed of approximately 503 km/s. A glancing blow from this CME is
possible early on 04 November.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Further M-class flares are likely from new Region
1339.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with
major and severe storm periods observed at high latitudes. At
approximately 01/0817Z, a shock arrival was observed at the ACE
spacecraft. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 370 km/s
to 420 km/s while the total magnetic field (IMF Bt) increased from 5
to 15 nT. A sudden impulse (SI) of 18 nT was observed on the
Boulder magnetometer at 01/0907Z. This event was possibly due to
transient activity associated with a DSF on 28 October.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
possible on day 1 (02 November) due to continued activity from
transient activity on 01 November. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on days 2 - 3 (03 - 04 November).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Nov a 04 Nov
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Nov 139 Previsto 02 Nov-04 Nov 145/145/150 Media de 90 Días 01 Nov 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Oct 009/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Nov 015/027 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Nov a 04 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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