Viendo archivo del domingo, 30 octubre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Oct 30 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 303 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Oct 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z

Solar activity was low. There were several C-class flares during the past 24 hours. Most of these were from newly emerging Region 1334 (N13E24) which is currently a C-type group with area of about 70 millionths. Region 1330 (N08W35) continues to be the largest group on the disk and managed to produce two C-class flares. However, Region 1330 appears to be decreasing in sunspot area. There continues to be indicators of a new region rotating around the east limb with latitude around 15 degrees North. A CME was observed in the LASCO C2 coronagraph beginning at about 0812Z but was confirmed to be from the backside using STEREO imagery.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be generally low. There continues to be, however, a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was initially quiet. An increase to unsettled to active levels with some minor storm periods at high latitudes occurred after 1003Z after a disturbance in the solar wind impacted the magnetosphere. The disturbance was also seen at the ACE spacecraft at about 0855Z: solar wind increased from around 280 km/s to about 320 km/s, Bt from 3 nT up to about 6 nT, and density from less than 1 p/cc up to about 6 p/cc. The solar wind parameters continued to show somewhat elevated signatures for the remainder of the period. There was also a solar sector boundary crossing on 29 October at about 2111Z from negative to positive polarity and the presence of a positive sector was clearly indicated throughout the interval. In addition, solar wind speed and temperature were showing an increasing trend near the end of the interval. It appears that the initial phase of the disturbance was related to the DSF/CME that occurred on 26 October. However, it also appears that the expected high speed stream is beginning to be evident in the solar wind observations.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled for the next 24 hours (31 October) with a chance for active periods as the high speed stream is expected to be more clearly evident. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the second day (01 November) and quiet levels are expected to predominate on the third day (02 November).
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Oct a 02 Nov
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       30 Oct 127
  Previsto   31 Oct-02 Nov  130/130/125
  Media de 90 Días        30 Oct 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 29 Oct  002/002
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 30 Oct  007/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  010/010-005/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Oct a 02 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%10%10%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%20%10%
Tormenta Menor25%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%05%01%

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