Viendo archivo del miércoles, 26 octubre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Oct 26 2205 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 299 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Oct 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels due to a single C1
x-ray event at 26/1001Z from Region 1324 (N12W38). Associated with
this event was a partial-halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2
imagery lifting off the NW limb at 26/1000Z. GOES-15 SXI imagery
first observed material movement from Region 1324 in a W-NW
direction at about 26/0800Z. Limited imagery prevented a thorough
analysis of the CMEs potential geoeffectiveness. The region
exhibited significant decay in area and spot count and was
classified as a beta magnetic configuration. Regions 1325 (N17W12)
and 1327 (S20W67) also indicated decay in both area coverage and
spot count. The remaining regions were unchanged.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class activity all three days (27 - 29
October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes. Solar wind speeds
decayed through the period from near 550 km/s to about 400 km/s
while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not
vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (27 October). Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on days two and three (28 - 29 October) as a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective
position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Oct a 29 Oct
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 Oct 132 Previsto 27 Oct-29 Oct 130/130/130 Media de 90 Días 26 Oct 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 25 Oct 027/033 Estimado Afr/Ap 26 Oct 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 005/005-007/007-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Oct a 29 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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