Viendo archivo del domingo, 23 octubre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Oct 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 296 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Oct 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1324 (N12W00) produced a
C2 X-ray flare at 23/1147Z as well as a few other optical subflares.
The region continues to slowly decay. New Region 1331 (N11W60)
emerged on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. Regions 1324
(N12W00) and 1330 (N08E60) are the most likely source of flare
activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. A greater than 10 MeV proton event
began at 23/1500Z. So far the observed peak flux was 13 pfu at
23/1535Z. The source of the event is believed to be yesterdays
long-duration M1 flare at 22/1110Z in Region 1314 (N29, L=053).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected be mostly quiet becoming quiet to unsettled with a chance
of active periods on 25 October. This activity is expected in
response to the arrival of a CME that occurred at 22/0058Z in
association with an eruptive filament. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to end by 24 October.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Oct a 26 Oct
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Oct 156 Previsto 24 Oct-26 Oct 150/145/140 Media de 90 Días 23 Oct 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Oct 002/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Oct 002/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 005/005-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Oct a 26 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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