Viendo archivo del sábado, 22 octubre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Oct 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 295 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Oct 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1314 (N29W93)
produced a long duration M1 flare at 22/1110Z associated with a CME
off the west limb that is not expected to be geoeffective. A
disappearing filament was observed at approximately 22/0058Z. An
associated CME appears to be Earth-directed but further analysis is
necessary to determine timing as images become available. New Region
1330 (N04E66) was numbered today and is considered a Dso-beta type
group.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
with M-class activity likely for the next three days (23-25
October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (23-25 October).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Oct a 25 Oct
| Clase M | 60% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Oct 164 Previsto 23 Oct-25 Oct 160/160/155 Media de 90 Días 22 Oct 122
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Oct 005/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Oct 003/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Oct a 25 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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