Viendo archivo del miércoles, 12 octubre 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 285 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Oct 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Two new regions were numbered today, Region 1318 (N21W03) and Region 1319 (N08E42). Since the emergence of Region 1319, in the vicinity of Region 1314 (N25E33), solar activity has increased with both regions producing low level C-class events.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class events for the next three days (13-15 October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind signatures, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated the arrival of a weak coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds peaked around 450 km/s but have since decreased to nominal levels, around 400 km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at predominantly quiet levels for the next two days (13-14 October). Late on day three (15 October), quiet to unsettled levels are forecast due to the arrival of another CH HSS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Oct a 15 Oct
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       12 Oct 134
  Previsto   13 Oct-15 Oct  135/135/135
  Media de 90 Días        12 Oct 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 11 Oct  003/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 12 Oct  005/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Oct a 15 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo05%05%20%
Tormenta Menor01%01%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%10%30%
Tormenta Menor01%01%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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