Viendo archivo del miércoles, 5 octubre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Oct 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 278 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Oct 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity for the past 24 hours has been at low
levels. New Region 1313 (S13E65) rotated onto the southeast limb
early in the period and has been responsible for a majority of the
activity. Region 1313, produced the largest event of the period, a
C9/Sf flare at 05/1242Z. Multiple CMEs were observed during the
past 24 hours, but none of them were considered to be geoeffective.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels for the next three days (06-08 October) as
Region 1313 continues to evolve.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels during
the past 24 hours. At 05/0742, a Sudden Impulse (SI) of 19 nT was
observed by the Boulder magnetometer. Following this SI, solar wind
speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, increased from 370 km/s
to around 480 km/s. The IMF also increased to around 12 nT, with
some extended periods of southward Bz. These characteristics are
congruent with the arrival of a CME. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels with a chance for
minor storm periods on day one (06 October). Predominantly quiet to
unsettled levels are expected for days two and three (07-08 October)
as the effects of the CMEs wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Oct a 08 Oct
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Oct 127 Previsto 06 Oct-08 Oct 125/125/130 Media de 90 Días 05 Oct 113
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Oct 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Oct 015/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 015/015-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Oct a 08 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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