Viendo archivo del lunes, 3 octubre 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Oct 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 276 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Oct 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1302 (N13W69) produced the largest event of the
period, a C7/2n x-ray flare at 03/0030Z. Region 1302 remains the
largest sunspot group on the visible disk but has begun to simplify
magnetically and decrease in size. Many of the regions on the disk,
also appear to be in a waning phase. In the southeast quadrant of
the disk, two new flux regions emerged with one becoming new Region
1310 (S33E16).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels for the next two days (04-05 October), as Region 1302
rotates off the west limb. Predominantly very low levels are
expected to prevail on day three (06 October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at predominantly quiet levels for the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft,
show nominal speeds around 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 October). An increase
to active and possible minor storm levels is expected on days two
and three (05-06 October) as three Earthbound CMEs are forecasted
to arrive.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Oct a 06 Oct
| Clase M | 20% | 15% | 01% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Oct 129 Previsto 04 Oct-06 Oct 125/125/120 Media de 90 Días 03 Oct 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Oct 007/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Oct 003/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/005-015/015-018/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Oct a 06 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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