Viendo archivo del sábado, 20 agosto 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Aug 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 232 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Aug 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. There were occasional
B-class flares from Regions 1272 (S22E15) and 1271 (N16E10). Region
1271 decayed slightly to become a Dso type spot group with Beta
magnetic configuration. Region 1274 (N19E70) was numbered today; it
is currently small and magnetically simple.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low on Day 1 (21 Aug), becoming low with a slight chance for
moderate activity on Days 2 and 3 (22-23 Aug) with four active
regions expected to be on the disk at that time.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet and the solar wind at the ACE
spacecraft was unremarkable.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on Day 1 (21 Aug) rising to
unsettled with a chance for active conditions on Day 2 (22 Aug).
The increase in activity is expected due to a co-rotating
interaction region followed by two negative polarity coronal hole
high speed streams. Day 3 (23 Aug) is expected to return to quiet
to unsettled conditions as effects from the first coronal hole begin
to wane.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Aug a 23 Aug
| Clase M | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Aug 101 Previsto 21 Aug-23 Aug 102/104/105 Media de 90 Días 20 Aug 096
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Aug 001/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Aug 003/003 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 007/008-010/012-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Aug a 23 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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