Viendo archivo del sábado, 30 julio 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jul 30 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 211 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Jul 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 1261 (N17E22), a Dkc spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification, produced an impulsive M9 flare at 0209Z with an associated Tenflare. There appeared to be no CME associated with the event in LASCO imagery. Region 1260 (N19W09) has shown consolidation in its trailer spots and is now classified as a Ehi spot group with a Beta magnetic configuration. Region 1263 (N18E48) has been relatively stable and did not produce any significant flaring during the period. New Region 1265 (N18W41) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with the chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were likely due to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) associated with the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. ACE signatures indicate a possible weak CIR onset at approximately 0900Z on 30 July.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active from 31 July to 01 August due to effects from the coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 02 August.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Jul a 02 Aug
Clase M45%45%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       30 Jul 113
  Previsto   31 Jul-02 Aug  110/110/110
  Media de 90 Días        30 Jul 095
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 29 Jul  003/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 30 Jul  011/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  012/012-012/012-007/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Jul a 02 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%35%15%
Tormenta Menor15%15%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%40%20%
Tormenta Menor20%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%01%

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