Viendo archivo del domingo, 19 junio 2011

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 170 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Jun 2011

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 1234 (S16W74) and 1237 (S15E39) each produced a C-class flare during the period. Region 1234 showed no significant change as it approached the west limb. Region 1236 (N15E06) produced an isolated B-class flare. It showed no significant changes and remained an E-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A C1/Sf flare from Region 1237 at 19/1637Z was associated with a partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 519 km/s and appeared to have an Earthward component. New Region 1238 (S17E11), a two-spot Axx group, was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low during the period (20 - 22 June).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (20 - 21 June) with a chance for brief active periods due to a coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (22 June). The CME mentioned above is not expected to disturb the field during the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Jun a 22 Jun
Clase M15%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 Jun 099
  Previsto   20 Jun-22 Jun  100/095/095
  Media de 90 Días        19 Jun 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 18 Jun  004/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 19 Jun  003/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 20 Jun-22 Jun  007/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Jun a 22 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%10%
Tormenta Menor05%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%25%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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