Viendo archivo del sábado, 28 mayo 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 May 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 148 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 May 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1226 (S19E65) produced
the majority of the flare activity, including a C8 x-ray event at
28/0331Z. The region grew rapidly in size, spot count and
complexity over the past 24 hours, ending the period as an Eai spot
group with Beta-Gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 1224
(N20W28), a Dso class group with Beta magnetic characteristics, also
grew over the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to remain low
for the next three days (29-31 May) with a slight chance for an
M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm
levels over the past 24 hours. The ACE spacecraft observed the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field turned southward
(negative) at approximately 25/0530Z. The field generally ranged
from -5 nT to -12 nT between 27/2130Z to 28/1230Z. The prolonged
southward Bz resulted in substantial geomagnetic disruption and was
attributed to the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream
possibly coupled with effects from the 25 May filament eruption.
Solar wind speed rose above 500 km/s after 28/0530Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at unsettled to active levels, with isolated
minor storm periods, on days 1 and 2 (29-30 May), becoming
predominantly unsettled on day 3 (31 May). This activity is in
response to the continued influence of the coronal hole high speed
stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 May a 31 May
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 May 101 Previsto 29 May-31 May 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 28 May 108
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 May 007/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 May 032/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 020/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 May a 31 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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