Viendo archivo del miércoles, 16 febrero 2011
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2011 Feb 16 2205 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 047 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Feb 2011IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate with occasional
M-class and frequent C-class events throughout the period. Region
1158 (S21W39) has produced two M-class flares; the largest an M1/1F
at 16/1425Z with associated Type II radio sweep and a 330 sfu
Tenflare. Growth in Region 1158 leveled off at 620 millionths but
maintained its E-type configuration and beta-gamma-delta magnetic
classification. Region 1161 (N13E25) produced an M1 x-ray event at
16/0139Z. LASCO imagery indicated an associated CME at 16/0248Z.
Region 1161 has shown continual growth. The group currently has an
area of 330 millionths and developed a beta-gamma magnetic
classification.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for an isolated major flare for the next
three days (17-19 February). Region 1158 is expected to produce more
M-class flares and still has the potential for producing an M5 or
greater x-ray event. There is a chance for isolated M-class activity
from Region 1161.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind velocities
throughout the period gradually decreased to around 400km/s.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day one (February 17). An
increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for minor
storm periods is expected late on day one into day two (18
February). The increased activity is forecast due to the expected
arrival of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on
15/0156Z. Day three (19 February) is expected to be quiet to active
as the disturbance subsides.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Feb a 19 Feb
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Feb 114 Previsto 17 Feb-19 Feb 105/105/100 Media de 90 Días 16 Feb 085
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Feb 004/005 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Feb 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 018/018-025/025-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Feb a 19 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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