Viendo archivo del martes, 14 diciembre 2010

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Dec 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 348 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Dec 2010

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A 12 degree long filament, centered at N24W68, erupted and was observed by ground-based observers and in SDO/AIA 171 imagery lifting off the disk at 14/1449Z. Simultaneously, a long duration C2.3/Sf flare was observed in Region 1133 (N15W61) at 14/1550Z. An associated CME, visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery, was seen lifting off the northwest limb at 14/1536Z. The CME did not appear to be earth-directed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain very low with a slight chance for a C-class x-ray event all three days (15-17 December).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled as a coronal hole high speed stream continued to influence the magnetosphere. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft ranged from 450 km/s at the beginning of the period to approximately 650 km/s at forecast time.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected be quiet to unsettled for days 1 and 2 (15-16 December) due to the continued influence of coronal hole high speed streams. Day 3 (17 December) is expected to bring a return to quiet conditions as the influence of coronal hole high speed streams wanes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Dec a 17 Dec
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 Dec 090
  Previsto   15 Dec-17 Dec  088/088/086
  Media de 90 Días        14 Dec 083
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 13 Dec  005/005
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 14 Dec  008/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  007/007-007/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Dec a 17 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%15%10%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%20%10%
Tormenta Menor01%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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