Viendo archivo del sábado, 23 octubre 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Oct 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 296 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Oct 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1117 (N22E28) grew
in area and spots as well as increased in magnetic complexity. It
produced a B4 x-ray flare at 23/2011Z. The characteristics of Region
1115 (S29W36) did not change much, though it produced a B3 x-ray
flare at 26/1738Z. The leading edge of the CME from a disappearing
filament on 21 October was visible on both STEREO A and B HI1
images.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is forecast to be
predominately low with a chance for a C-class flare on days 1-3
(24-26 October).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active with a period of
minor to major storming at high latitudes between 23/1200-1500Z as
the result of coronal hole effects. Solar wind speeds were near or
above 650 km/s throughout most of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor
storming likely at all latitudes and a chance for major storming at
high latitudes for days 1-2 (24-25 October). Conditions are forecast
to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for an isolated minor
storm on day 3 (26 October) at all latitudes. The elevated activity
is expected in part to a large, favorably positioned coronal hole as
well as a possible glancing blow on 25 October from the
aforementioned CME.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Oct a 26 Oct
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Oct 084 Previsto 24 Oct-26 Oct 084/084/084 Media de 90 Días 23 Oct 081
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Oct 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Oct 012/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 015/020-015/018-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Oct a 26 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 40% | 20% |
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