Viendo archivo del domingo, 14 febrero 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Feb 14 2201 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 045 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Feb 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1048 (N20E64) produced a
C4 flare at 14/1204Z. Region 1046 (N24W23) produced an isolated
B-class flare. Region 1046 was in a gradual decay phase with
decreased spot count and area as well as a decrease in magnetic
complexity. No new regions were assigned.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-class flares are likely. There is also a chance for
an isolated M-class flare from Regions 1046 and 1048.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels during the period (15 -
17 February) with a chance for minor storm levels. A CME is expected
to impact the field on 15 February. A recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream is expected to disturb the field during 16 - 17
February.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Feb a 17 Feb
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Feb 089 Previsto 15 Feb-17 Feb 086/084/084 Media de 90 Días 14 Feb 079
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Feb 003/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 012/012-018/018-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Feb a 17 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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