Viendo archivo del sábado, 13 febrero 2010
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2010 Feb 13 2226 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
::::::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::::: SDF Número 044 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Feb 2010IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1045 (N24W69) and 1046
(N23W11) were stable during the period producing only low level
C-class events. Both regions maintained Beta-Gamma magnetic
classifications. New Region 1048 (N23E90) was numbered during the
period after producing two C-class flares, the largest a C9.6 event
at 13/1239Z, observed on SXI from around the east limb. No spots
have been reported yet.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with a chance for high activity on days 1-3 (14-16
February).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a single period of
unsettled conditions from 13/15-18Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for day 1 (14 February). Unsettled to active
conditions with a chance for isolated minor storming is expected on
day 2 (15 February) with an increased chance for minor storming on
day 3 (16 February). Activity is associated with the midday, day 2
arrival of the 13 February CME, and a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Feb a 16 Feb
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Feb 094 Previsto 14 Feb-16 Feb 095/095/095 Media de 90 Días 13 Feb 079
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Feb 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 005/005-012/012-018/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Feb a 16 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 40% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 45% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 15% |
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